마징가Z 2012. 11. 8. 08:04

 


 

 

11/8 Credit Suisse

 

Taiwan Touvh : Revolutions in touch

 

We forecast touch panel industry will continue to see secular growth in 2013-15E on increasing demand for mobile computing devices

(smartphones and tablet PCs), as well as emerging applications for NB and AIO PCs.

We forecast touch panel industry revenue will grow from US$12 bn in 2011 to US$27 bn in 2013E and reach US$34 bn by 2015E, a 27% CAGR.

 

We see three important trends happening for the touch industry in 2013-15:

(1) Tablet and NB touch panels will become the new growth driver in the next three years, will account for 34% of total touch sales in 2013 and will reach 38% by 2015.

 

(2) Various touch technologies and structures (G/G, OGS, G1F, G2F, In-cell/On-cell, etc) should coexist in the smartphone area given different pricing segment, but tablet/NB sized (7-14”) touch technologies could converge to OGS and Glass/Film to meet the thinner and lighter trend.

 

(3) Full lamination penetration would increase for slimmer design, higher optical transparency, and better sensitivity; but profitability is determined by the yield, not the scale.

 

We estimate the breakeven yield for full lamination of 80-85% for smartphones and tablet/NBs, based on 9-12% gross margin assumptions under 95% yield.

 

Only TPK made a profit for doing full lamination in the past two years, and we think PC OEM makers are still behind leading touch makers in terms of technology and yield to step into this business.

 

We also like G-Tech on market share gain story within Apple’s tablet and AIO PC products, which leads to strong sales momentum in 2H12-2013.

 

 

Following President Obama’s victory in yesterday’s election, we have the following conclusions on markets:

 

The dividend and capital gains tax proposals could take c5% off the S&P500 if implemented in full. If markets had been pricing in a 50% chance of Obama victory, then this would take c2 ½% off the S&P;

- (1) Obama proposes to raise the top rate of tax from 15% to 39.6% on dividends (for those earning more than $200K a year) and from 15% to 20% on capital gains (both of these would be raised by a further 3.8% surcharge on investment income under Obamacare).

 

The fiscal cliff is the critical issue and our Washington specialists believe there is more scope for compromise on this especially under an Obama Presidency than many realize;

 

An Obama victory reduces the likelihood of an escalation in China trade tensions and, above all, removes the risk of a more hawkish Fed;

 

US corporates have already reacted to fiscal uncertainty by cutting capex, so we think there is scope for a rebound as soon as a compromise is reached on the fiscal cliff and thus we would be looking to add to productivity enhancing US corporate spend plays (advertising, software, hotels).